— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
34¢
wn2
33¢
eps
28¢
nbm
25¢
hres
17¢
icon
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F21¢
64–65°F31¢
66–67°F25¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape