KCLE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

33%

28%

17%

17%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.4¢Risks 12.68u

ICONNO 74.6¢Risks 37.32u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +37.32u · ICON −37.32u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:34+00:00	90.0%	47.7%	82.8%	47.5%	29.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	90.0%	39.8%	80.0%	47.5%	29.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	90.0%	39.8%	80.0%	47.5%	29.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	90.0%	39.8%	80.0%	47.5%	29.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	76.7%	39.8%	80.0%	47.5%	29.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	76.7%	39.8%	79.9%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	76.7%	43.8%	79.9%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	76.7%	43.8%	79.9%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	76.7%	43.8%	79.9%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	76.7%	43.8%	73.2%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	76.7%	43.8%	73.2%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	76.7%	43.8%	73.2%	47.5%	30.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	73.2%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	73.2%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	73.2%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	73.2%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	73.2%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	55.0%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	59.5%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	64.8%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	64.8%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	72.1%	43.8%	64.8%	22.0%	64.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:53+00:00	82.3%	43.8%	64.8%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	82.3%	43.8%	64.8%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	82.3%	43.8%	64.8%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	82.3%	43.8%	64.8%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	82.3%	43.8%	64.8%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	82.3%	43.8%	69.6%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	82.3%	24.8%	69.6%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	82.3%	24.8%	69.6%	31.3%	62.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	72.4%	24.9%	69.6%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	72.4%	24.9%	69.6%	31.4%	62.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:17+00:00	58.8%	23.6%	64.2%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	58.8%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	58.8%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	58.8%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	62.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	68.6%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	68.6%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	68.6%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	68.6%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	68.6%	23.6%	63.4%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	68.6%	35.4%	73.7%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	68.6%	35.4%	73.7%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	68.6%	35.4%	73.7%	35.8%	32.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	56.4%	35.4%	73.7%	21.3%	32.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	56.4%	35.4%	73.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	56.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	56.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	56.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	56.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	56.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	56.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	32.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:34+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	73.7%	21.3%	28.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	73.7%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	44.4%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	70.4%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	57.7%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	57.7%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	45.2%	36.6%	57.7%	23.9%	28.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:35+00:00	43.1%	36.6%	57.7%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	43.1%	36.6%	57.7%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	43.1%	36.6%	57.7%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	43.1%	36.6%	57.7%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	43.1%	36.6%	57.7%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	43.1%	25.2%	51.1%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	43.1%	25.2%	51.1%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	43.1%	25.2%	51.1%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	39.7%	25.2%	51.1%	15.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	39.7%	25.2%	51.1%	15.9%	11.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	39.7%	27.7%	51.1%	15.9%	11.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	39.7%	27.7%	51.1%	15.9%	11.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	39.7%	27.7%	45.7%	15.9%	11.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	39.7%	27.7%	45.7%	15.9%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	39.7%	27.7%	45.7%	15.9%	11.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	39.7%	27.7%	45.7%	15.9%	11.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	45.7%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	45.7%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	45.7%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	45.7%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	33.4%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	33.4%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	33.4%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	33.4%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	33.4%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	33.4%	17.4%	16.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	33.9%	27.7%	33.4%	17.4%	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	65.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.9°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	17%	62.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	62.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗