— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
44¢
aifs
40¢
wn2
25¢
hres
15¢
eps
14¢
icon
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F24¢
66–67°F30¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape