KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

25%

15%

14%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.7¢Risks 26.65u

ICONNO 73.4¢Risks 73.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.35u · ICON −73.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:18+00:00	51.4%	28.5%	68.9%	19.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	51.4%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	51.4%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	51.4%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	57.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	63.8%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	63.8%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	63.8%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	63.8%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	63.8%	28.5%	60.9%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	63.8%	16.7%	69.6%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	63.8%	16.7%	69.6%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	63.8%	16.7%	69.6%	19.6%	30.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	47.8%	16.7%	69.6%	13.4%	30.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	47.8%	16.8%	69.6%	13.4%	31.2%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	47.8%	18.2%	69.6%	13.4%	31.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	47.8%	18.2%	69.6%	13.4%	31.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	47.8%	18.2%	69.6%	13.4%	31.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	47.8%	18.2%	74.0%	13.4%	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	47.8%	18.2%	74.0%	13.4%	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	47.8%	18.2%	74.0%	13.4%	31.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	74.0%	13.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:34+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	74.0%	13.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	74.0%	13.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	74.0%	13.4%	26.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	74.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	61.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	61.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	31.5%	18.2%	61.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	33.5%	18.2%	61.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	33.5%	18.2%	61.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	33.5%	18.2%	61.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	33.5%	18.2%	61.0%	27.7%	26.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	36.6%	14.4%	37.6%	17.1%	16.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	36.6%	14.4%	37.6%	17.1%	16.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	36.6%	14.4%	34.9%	17.1%	16.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	36.6%	14.4%	34.9%	17.1%	16.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	36.6%	14.4%	34.9%	17.1%	16.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	36.6%	14.4%	34.9%	17.1%	16.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	34.9%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	34.9%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	34.9%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	34.9%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	24.8%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	24.8%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	24.8%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	29.3%	14.4%	24.8%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	39.6%	14.4%	24.8%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	39.6%	14.4%	24.8%	15.4%	13.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	39.6%	14.4%	24.8%	15.4%	13.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	67.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	62.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	65.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	61.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 69°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗