daily prop · Cleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Thu Oct 22

2¢

american +4286 · decimal 43.86

on the tape

75°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 75°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		11¢
wn2		9¢
icon		7¢
hres		7¢
aifs		6¢
nbm		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F3¢

62–63°F11¢

64–65°F24¢

66–67°F30¢

68–69°F21¢

70–71°F8¢

72–73°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape