KCLE / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 4.8¢Risks 1.20u

EPSNO 95.2¢Risks 23.80u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.80u · EPS −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:54+00:00	36.1%	3.3%	34.9%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	36.1%	3.3%	34.9%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	36.1%	3.3%	34.9%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	36.1%	3.3%	34.9%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:15+00:00	36.1%	3.3%	34.9%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	36.1%	3.3%	25.5%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	36.1%	1.3%	25.5%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:25+00:00	36.1%	1.3%	25.5%	2.1%	3.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	48.6%	1.3%	25.8%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	48.6%	1.3%	25.8%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	48.6%	1.4%	25.8%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	48.6%	1.4%	25.8%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	48.6%	1.4%	34.0%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	48.6%	1.4%	34.0%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	48.6%	1.4%	34.0%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	48.6%	1.4%	34.0%	2.2%	3.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	23.1%	1.4%	34.0%	3.6%	33.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	23.1%	1.4%	34.0%	3.6%	33.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	23.1%	1.4%	34.0%	3.6%	33.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	23.1%	1.4%	34.0%	3.6%	33.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	23.1%	1.4%	24.5%	3.6%	33.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	23.1%	1.4%	24.5%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	23.1%	1.4%	24.5%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	24.5%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	24.5%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	24.5%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	24.5%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:20+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	24.5%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	15.5%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	22.3%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	22.3%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	22.3%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	22.3%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	22.3%	1.4%	18.3%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	22.0%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	22.0%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	22.0%	3.7%	8.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:40+00:00	12.1%	0.4%	22.0%	2.2%	8.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	12.2%	0.4%	22.0%	2.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	12.2%	0.5%	22.0%	2.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	12.2%	0.4%	22.0%	2.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	12.2%	0.4%	22.0%	2.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:23+00:00	12.2%	0.4%	26.0%	2.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	12.2%	0.4%	26.0%	2.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	12.2%	0.4%	26.0%	2.2%	9.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	26.0%	2.2%	7.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:34+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	26.0%	2.2%	7.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	26.0%	2.2%	7.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	26.0%	2.2%	7.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	26.0%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	5.6%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	15.7%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	9.2%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	9.2%	6.7%	7.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	9.2%	6.7%	7.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	11%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	68.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	7%	64.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	7%	64.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	66.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	67.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗