daily prop · Cleveland, OH · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sat Oct 24

Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sat Oct 24

3¢

american +3085 · decimal 31.85

on the tape

74°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 74°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		19¢
aifs		13¢
icon		13¢
nbm		5¢
ndfd		5¢
hres		3¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

58–59°F2¢

60–61°F5¢

62–63°F11¢

64–65°F18¢

66–67°F22¢

68–69°F20¢

70–71°F13¢

72–73°F6¢

74–75°F2¢

76–77°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape