KCLE / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

13%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 9.7¢Risks 4.83u

EPSNO 90.3¢Risks 45.17u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.17u · EPS −45.17u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	6.3%	5.2%	35.0%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	6.3%	5.2%	35.0%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	6.3%	5.2%	35.0%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	6.3%	5.2%	35.0%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	6.3%	5.2%	35.0%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	6.3%	0.8%	21.6%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	6.3%	0.8%	21.6%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	6.3%	0.8%	21.6%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	21.6%	4.3%	1.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	21.7%	4.3%	1.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	21.7%	4.3%	1.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	21.7%	4.3%	1.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	16.9%	4.3%	1.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	16.9%	4.3%	1.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	16.9%	4.3%	1.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	11.2%	0.8%	16.9%	4.3%	1.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	16.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	16.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	16.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	16.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	7.9%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:11+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	8.2%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	10.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	10.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	10.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	9.0%	0.8%	10.9%	6.4%	11.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:25+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	10.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	10.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	10.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	10.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	9.8%	0.3%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	9.8%	0.3%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	9.8%	0.3%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	9.8%	0.3%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	8.0%	0.3%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	8.0%	0.3%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	8.9%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	10.7%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	10.7%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	8.0%	0.2%	10.7%	1.8%	17.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	10.7%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	10.8%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:00+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	16.8%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	19.6%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	19.6%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	10.1%	0.2%	19.6%	6.9%	25.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	10.9%	0.2%	19.6%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	10.9%	0.2%	19.6%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	10.9%	0.2%	19.6%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	10.9%	0.2%	19.6%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	10.9%	0.2%	19.6%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	10.9%	0.7%	33.1%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	10.9%	0.7%	33.1%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	10.9%	0.7%	33.1%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	4.1%	0.7%	33.1%	0.8%	13.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	4.1%	0.7%	33.1%	0.8%	13.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:37+00:00	4.1%	0.8%	33.1%	0.8%	13.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	4.1%	0.8%	33.1%	0.8%	13.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:18+00:00	4.1%	0.8%	33.1%	0.8%	13.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	4.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.8%	13.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	4.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.8%	13.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	4.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.8%	13.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	24.0%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:46+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	27.2%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	21.1%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	21.1%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	8.4%	0.8%	21.1%	0.3%	15.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	13.3%	0.8%	21.1%	0.3%	12.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	13.3%	0.8%	21.1%	0.3%	12.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	13.3%	0.8%	21.1%	0.3%	12.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	13.3%	0.8%	21.1%	0.3%	12.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	18.8%	3.3%	12.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	18.8%	3.3%	12.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	18.8%	3.3%	12.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	13.3%	0.5%	18.8%	3.3%	12.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	19%	70.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	68.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	13%	68.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	64.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	63.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗