— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
74¢
hrrr
65¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
54¢
wn2
53¢
rrfs
49¢
nbm
41¢
icon
27¢
hres
26¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape