KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

54%

53%

27%

26%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.8¢Risks 49.80u

HRESNO 50.2¢Risks 50.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.20u · HRES −50.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	60.3%	40.1%	73.7%	38.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:51+00:00	60.3%	40.1%	73.7%	38.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	60.3%	40.1%	73.7%	38.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	60.3%	40.1%	73.7%	38.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	60.3%	40.1%	73.7%	38.4%	43.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:10+00:00	67.6%	40.1%	73.7%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	67.6%	40.1%	73.7%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	67.6%	40.1%	73.7%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	67.6%	40.1%	73.7%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	67.6%	40.1%	73.7%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	67.6%	40.1%	71.4%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	67.6%	30.9%	71.4%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	67.6%	30.9%	71.4%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	72.2%	30.9%	71.4%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	72.2%	30.9%	71.4%	22.4%	59.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	86.1%	57.0%	67.4%	44.2%	54.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	86.1%	57.0%	71.9%	44.2%	54.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	86.1%	57.0%	71.9%	44.2%	54.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	86.1%	57.0%	71.9%	44.2%	54.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	86.1%	57.0%	71.9%	44.2%	54.5%
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	86.2%	57.0%	71.9%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	86.2%	57.0%	71.9%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	86.2%	57.0%	71.9%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	86.2%	57.0%	71.9%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	86.2%	62.0%	64.7%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	86.2%	62.0%	64.7%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	86.2%	62.0%	64.7%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	86.2%	62.0%	64.7%	35.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	79.9%	61.8%	64.7%	35.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	79.9%	61.8%	64.7%	35.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	79.9%	53.8%	64.7%	35.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	79.9%	53.8%	64.7%	35.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	79.9%	53.8%	59.5%	35.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:18+00:00	79.9%	53.8%	59.5%	35.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	79.9%	53.8%	59.5%	35.3%	47.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	59.5%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	59.5%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	59.5%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	59.5%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	59.5%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	52.7%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	52.7%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	74.5%	53.8%	52.7%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	73.7%	53.8%	52.7%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	73.7%	53.8%	52.7%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	73.7%	53.8%	52.7%	25.9%	26.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	73.7%	53.8%	52.7%	25.9%	26.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	74%	70.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	67.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	65.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	65.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗