— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
64¢
wn2
60¢
ndfd
53¢
aifs
46¢
nbm
46¢
hres
43¢
eps
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F22¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape