KCLT / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

46%

43%

21%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

EPSNO 57.2¢Risks 57.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +57.25u · EPS −57.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T11:35:24+00:00	51.4%	16.9%	51.6%	64.2%	12.6%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	51.4%	33.6%	51.6%	64.2%	12.6%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	51.4%	33.6%	51.6%	64.2%	12.6%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	57.8%	33.6%	51.6%	64.2%	12.6%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	57.8%	33.6%	51.6%	64.2%	12.7%
2026-10-12T15:26:46+00:00	57.8%	33.6%	51.6%	64.2%	12.7%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	57.8%	35.3%	51.6%	64.2%	12.7%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	57.8%	35.3%	61.9%	64.2%	12.7%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	57.8%	35.3%	61.9%	64.2%	12.7%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	57.8%	35.3%	61.9%	64.2%	12.7%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	57.8%	35.3%	61.9%	64.2%	12.7%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	61.9%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	61.9%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	61.9%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	61.9%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	57.1%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T04:15:24+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	66.4%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	70.0%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	70.0%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	70.0%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	73.3%	35.3%	70.0%	43.7%	54.4%
2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00	67.4%	35.3%	70.0%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	67.4%	35.3%	70.0%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	67.4%	35.3%	70.0%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00	67.4%	35.3%	70.0%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	67.4%	17.5%	52.6%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	67.4%	17.5%	52.6%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	67.4%	17.5%	52.6%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	67.4%	17.5%	52.6%	47.0%	69.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	58.2%	17.5%	52.6%	47.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	58.2%	21.1%	52.6%	47.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	58.2%	21.1%	52.6%	47.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	58.2%	21.1%	52.6%	47.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	58.2%	21.1%	50.0%	47.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	58.2%	21.1%	50.0%	47.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	58.2%	21.1%	50.0%	47.0%	70.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	50.0%	47.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	50.0%	47.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	50.0%	47.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:03+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	50.0%	47.0%	64.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	50.0%	42.7%	64.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	59.5%	42.7%	64.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	59.5%	42.7%	64.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	65.4%	21.1%	59.5%	42.7%	64.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	46.2%	21.1%	59.5%	42.7%	64.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	46.2%	21.1%	59.5%	42.7%	64.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	73.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.4147
WeatherNext 2	60%	71.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.3540
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
AIFS Single	46%	70.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.2134
National Blend	46%	70.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2116
IFS HRES	43%	69.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1823
IFS Ensemble	21%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0445

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗