— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
wn2
47¢
aifs
42¢
icon
32¢
nbm
23¢
hres
18¢
eps
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F24¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape