KCLT / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

42%

32%

18%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.2¢Risks 29.20u

EPSNO 70.8¢Risks 70.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.80u · EPS −70.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	50.0%	31.0%	65.0%	26.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	50.0%	31.0%	65.0%	26.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	50.0%	31.0%	55.1%	26.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	50.0%	31.0%	55.1%	26.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	50.0%	31.0%	55.1%	26.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	50.0%	31.0%	55.1%	26.2%	55.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	47.8%	31.0%	55.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	47.8%	31.0%	55.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	47.8%	31.0%	55.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	47.8%	31.0%	55.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	47.8%	31.0%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	47.8%	30.9%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	47.8%	30.9%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	47.8%	30.9%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	44.1%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	50.9%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	50.9%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	50.9%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	49.3%	30.9%	50.9%	15.5%	33.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	46.0%	30.9%	50.9%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	46.0%	30.9%	50.9%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	46.0%	30.9%	50.9%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	46.0%	30.9%	50.9%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	46.0%	11.3%	47.1%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	46.0%	11.3%	47.1%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	46.0%	11.3%	47.1%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	46.0%	11.3%	47.1%	17.6%	32.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	42.0%	11.3%	47.1%	17.6%	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	47%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	73.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	71.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	69.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	71.6°F	2.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261023-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 17 · 15:24 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗