— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
62¢
wn2
58¢
nbm
56¢
aifs
55¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
45¢
eps
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F2¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261026-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape