KCLT / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

58%

55%

45%

16%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.8¢Risks 38.75u

EPSNO 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.25u · EPS −61.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:46+00:00	61.0%	12.5%	53.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	61.0%	12.5%	53.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	61.0%	12.5%	53.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	61.0%	12.5%	53.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	61.0%	12.5%	53.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	61.0%	13.3%	51.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	61.0%	13.3%	51.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	61.0%	13.3%	51.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	61.0%	13.3%	51.6%	28.3%	2.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	61.0%	13.3%	51.6%	28.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	61.0%	12.7%	51.6%	28.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	61.0%	12.7%	51.6%	28.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	61.0%	12.7%	51.6%	28.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	61.0%	12.7%	62.3%	28.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	61.0%	12.7%	62.3%	28.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	61.0%	12.7%	62.3%	28.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	62.3%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	62.3%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	62.3%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	62.3%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	62.3%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	58.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:11+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	57.0%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	55.5%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	55.5%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	60.3%	12.7%	55.5%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	55.2%	12.7%	55.5%	34.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	55.2%	12.7%	55.5%	34.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	55.2%	12.7%	55.5%	34.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	55.2%	12.7%	55.5%	34.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00	55.2%	15.9%	57.6%	44.6%	61.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	55.2%	15.9%	57.6%	44.6%	61.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	55.2%	15.9%	57.6%	44.6%	61.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	55.2%	15.9%	57.6%	44.6%	61.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	76.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	75.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	55%	75.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	71.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗