— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
64¢
aifs
64¢
nbm
55¢
hres
45¢
eps
18¢
icon
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F15¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLT-20261027-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape