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KCLT / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
64%
AIFS
64%
HRES
45%
EPS
18%
ICON
6%
Consensus
38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 35.2¢Risks 35.20u
VS
ICONNO 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.80u · ICON −64.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 64.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 45.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:10+00:0064.3%18.3%64.5%45.1%5.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0064.3%18.3%64.5%45.1%5.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0064.3%18.3%64.5%45.1%5.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0064.3%18.3%64.5%45.1%5.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 264%78.4°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single64%78.6°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend55%77.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES45%75.7°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%73.7°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON6%60.8°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261027-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗