— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
73¢
aifs
62¢
nbm
55¢
icon
53¢
hres
49¢
eps
45¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F9¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F22¢
70–71°F15¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape