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KCMH / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 13 · 03:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
73%
AIFS
62%
ICON
53%
HRES
49%
EPS
45%
Consensus
58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 58.9¢Risks 58.90u
VS
EPSNO 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +41.10u · EPS −41.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T15:27:23+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00AIFS Single: 55.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.7% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.3% · 2026-10-12T15:27:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T15:27:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.5% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.7% · 2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.7% · 2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.7% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.7% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.7% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.7% · 2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.7% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.7% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T15:27:23+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:00ICON: 17.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T15:27:23+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00ICON: 17.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00ICON: 53.2% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:0010-12 11:3510-12 19:5810-13 03:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T11:35:33+00:0029.6%40.7%68.6%49.4%17.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:0029.6%48.3%68.6%49.4%17.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:56+00:0029.6%48.3%68.6%49.4%17.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:0055.0%48.3%68.6%49.4%17.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:0055.0%48.3%68.5%49.4%17.4%
2026-10-12T15:27:23+00:0055.0%48.3%68.5%49.4%17.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:0055.0%45.1%68.5%49.4%17.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:04+00:0055.0%45.1%74.7%49.4%17.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:0055.0%45.1%74.7%49.4%17.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:0055.0%45.1%74.7%49.4%17.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:0055.0%45.1%74.7%49.4%17.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:0049.3%45.1%74.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:0049.3%45.1%74.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:0049.3%45.1%74.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:0049.3%45.1%74.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:11+00:0049.3%45.1%72.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:0049.3%45.1%72.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:0049.3%45.1%72.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:0049.3%45.1%72.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:0061.9%45.1%72.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:0061.9%45.1%72.7%49.4%53.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:0061.9%45.1%72.7%49.4%53.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 273%69.5°F5.0°F2026-10-12 12:00Pending
AIFS Single62%68.2°F5.6°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:00Pending
ICON53%67.3°F9.9°F2026-10-12 12:00Pending
IFS HRES49%66.4°F6.3°F2026-10-12 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble45%65.9°F4.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261019-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗