— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
60¢
ndfd
55¢
aifs
49¢
icon
25¢
hres
15¢
eps
14¢
nbm
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F28¢
70–71°F29¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape