KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

49%

25%

15%

14%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 37.4¢Risks 37.35u

EPSNO 62.7¢Risks 62.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +62.65u · EPS −62.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	75.6%	26.5%	72.5%	22.9%	66.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	75.6%	26.5%	72.5%	22.9%	66.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	75.6%	26.5%	69.1%	22.9%	66.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	75.6%	26.5%	69.1%	22.9%	66.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	75.6%	26.5%	69.1%	22.9%	66.0%
2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00	82.3%	26.5%	69.1%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	82.3%	26.5%	69.1%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	82.3%	26.5%	69.1%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	82.3%	26.5%	69.1%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00	82.3%	26.5%	69.1%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	82.3%	26.5%	76.0%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	82.3%	13.8%	76.0%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00	82.3%	13.8%	76.0%	31.3%	70.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	71.1%	13.8%	76.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	71.1%	13.8%	76.0%	31.4%	69.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:15+00:00	75.4%	16.2%	76.7%	42.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	75.4%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	75.4%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	75.4%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	71.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	84.3%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	84.3%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	84.3%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	84.3%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	84.3%	16.2%	78.6%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	84.3%	27.4%	85.8%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	84.3%	27.4%	85.8%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	84.3%	27.4%	85.8%	42.2%	67.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	72.1%	27.4%	85.8%	29.6%	67.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	72.1%	27.4%	85.8%	29.6%	67.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	72.1%	25.7%	85.8%	29.6%	67.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	72.1%	25.7%	85.8%	29.6%	67.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	72.1%	25.7%	85.8%	29.6%	67.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:22+00:00	72.1%	25.7%	80.9%	29.6%	67.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	72.1%	25.7%	80.9%	29.6%	67.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	72.1%	25.7%	80.9%	29.6%	67.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	80.9%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	80.9%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	80.9%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	80.9%	29.6%	49.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	80.9%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	59.6%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	85.8%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	78.9%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	78.9%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	61.1%	25.7%	78.9%	35.2%	49.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	58.6%	25.7%	78.9%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	58.6%	25.7%	78.9%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	58.6%	25.7%	78.9%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	58.6%	25.7%	78.9%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	58.6%	25.7%	78.9%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	58.6%	19.7%	78.2%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	58.6%	19.7%	78.2%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	58.6%	19.7%	78.2%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	78.2%	19.5%	17.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	78.2%	19.5%	17.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	78.2%	19.5%	17.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	78.2%	19.5%	17.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	75.7%	19.5%	17.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	75.7%	19.5%	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	75.7%	19.5%	17.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	56.1%	19.7%	75.7%	19.5%	17.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	75.7%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	75.7%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	75.7%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	75.7%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	53.5%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	65.6%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	59.5%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	59.5%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	59.5%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	51.7%	19.7%	59.5%	18.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	55.6%	19.7%	59.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	55.6%	19.7%	59.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	55.6%	19.7%	59.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	55.6%	19.7%	59.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	55.6%	13.4%	60.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	55.6%	13.4%	60.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	55.6%	13.4%	60.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	55.6%	13.4%	60.5%	15.2%	24.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	49.1%	14.2%	60.5%	15.1%	24.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	71.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	70.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	25%	67.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	65.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	67.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗