— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
34¢
aifs
23¢
icon
20¢
ndfd
16¢
hres
11¢
eps
0¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F14¢
68–69°F28¢
70–71°F30¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:33+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape