KCMH / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

23%

20%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 17.2¢Risks 17.25u

EPSNO 82.8¢Risks 82.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +82.75u · EPS −82.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:33+00:00	55.7%	2.6%	50.7%	16.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:53+00:00	55.7%	1.3%	52.4%	16.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	55.7%	1.3%	52.4%	16.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	55.7%	1.3%	52.4%	16.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	42.2%	1.3%	52.4%	16.8%	22.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	42.2%	1.3%	52.4%	16.8%	22.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:22+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	52.4%	16.8%	22.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	52.4%	16.8%	22.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	52.4%	16.8%	22.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	40.5%	16.8%	22.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	40.5%	16.8%	22.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	40.5%	16.8%	22.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	40.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	40.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	40.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	40.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	40.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	31.5%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:13+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	34.5%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	30.9%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	30.9%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	42.2%	2.0%	30.9%	6.3%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:51+00:00	50.0%	2.0%	30.9%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	50.0%	2.0%	30.9%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	50.0%	2.0%	30.9%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	50.0%	2.0%	30.9%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:09+00:00	50.0%	2.0%	30.9%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:25+00:00	50.0%	2.0%	35.8%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:53+00:00	50.0%	0.3%	35.8%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:24+00:00	50.0%	0.3%	35.8%	10.6%	42.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	35.5%	0.3%	35.8%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	35.5%	0.3%	35.8%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:17+00:00	35.5%	0.4%	35.8%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	35.5%	0.4%	35.8%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	35.5%	0.4%	39.0%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	35.5%	0.4%	39.0%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	35.5%	0.4%	39.0%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	35.5%	0.4%	39.0%	10.7%	42.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	48.5%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	48.5%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	48.5%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	48.5%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	48.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	48.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	48.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:15+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	36.6%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	40.5%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	50.0%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	50.0%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	50.0%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	50.0%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	50.0%	0.4%	39.0%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	44.2%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	44.2%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	50.0%	0.5%	44.2%	17.0%	35.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	44.2%	8.1%	35.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	44.2%	8.1%	35.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	44.2%	8.1%	35.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	44.2%	8.1%	35.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	44.2%	8.1%	35.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:22+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	36.7%	8.1%	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	36.7%	8.1%	35.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	33.6%	0.5%	36.7%	8.1%	35.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	36.7%	8.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	36.7%	8.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	36.7%	8.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	36.7%	8.1%	19.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	36.7%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	22.2%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	44.2%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	34.0%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	34.0%	10.6%	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	23.4%	0.5%	34.0%	10.6%	19.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	34%	73.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	71.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	20%	70.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	16%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	68.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.8°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261021-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗