— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
63¢
aifs
58¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
41¢
hres
29¢
rrfs
20¢
icon
20¢
eps
19¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F27¢
70–71°F29¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-16T04:24:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape