KCMH / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

58%

29%

21%

18%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

EPSNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.40u · EPS −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:15+00:00	76.4%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	71.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	76.4%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	71.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	76.4%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	71.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	76.4%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	71.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	84.2%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	84.2%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	84.2%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	84.2%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	84.2%	30.9%	83.8%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:19+00:00	84.2%	23.4%	88.1%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	84.2%	23.4%	88.1%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	84.2%	23.4%	88.1%	30.4%	48.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:37+00:00	73.0%	23.4%	88.1%	35.8%	48.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	72.9%	23.5%	88.1%	35.8%	48.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:33+00:00	72.9%	22.2%	88.1%	35.8%	48.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	72.9%	22.2%	88.1%	35.8%	48.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	72.9%	22.2%	88.1%	35.8%	48.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:22+00:00	72.9%	22.2%	90.1%	35.8%	48.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	72.9%	22.2%	90.1%	35.8%	48.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	72.9%	22.2%	90.1%	35.8%	48.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:04+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	90.1%	35.8%	37.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:33+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	90.1%	35.8%	37.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	90.1%	35.8%	37.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	90.1%	35.8%	37.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	90.1%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:42+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	62.3%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:53+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	84.8%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	78.6%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	78.6%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	59.5%	22.2%	78.6%	34.1%	37.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:34+00:00	62.6%	22.2%	78.6%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	62.6%	22.2%	78.6%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:39+00:00	62.6%	22.2%	78.6%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	62.6%	22.2%	78.6%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	62.6%	22.2%	78.6%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	62.6%	21.4%	75.2%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	62.6%	21.4%	75.2%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	62.6%	21.4%	75.2%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	75.2%	27.8%	31.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	75.2%	27.9%	31.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:53+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	75.2%	27.9%	31.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	75.2%	27.9%	31.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	68.7%	27.9%	31.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	68.7%	27.9%	31.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	68.7%	27.9%	31.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	54.0%	21.4%	68.7%	27.9%	31.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	68.7%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	68.7%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	68.7%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	68.7%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	48.4%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	59.6%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:13+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	51.9%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	51.9%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	51.9%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	47.6%	21.4%	51.9%	21.9%	23.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:23+00:00	48.3%	21.4%	51.9%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	48.3%	21.4%	51.9%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	48.3%	21.4%	51.9%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	48.3%	21.4%	51.9%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:49+00:00	48.3%	9.1%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	48.3%	9.1%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:45+00:00	48.3%	9.1%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	48.3%	9.1%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:10+00:00	44.8%	9.1%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:52+00:00	44.8%	9.1%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	44.8%	7.7%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	44.8%	7.7%	52.1%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	44.8%	7.7%	46.8%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:28+00:00	44.8%	7.7%	46.8%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	44.8%	7.7%	46.8%	23.0%	18.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	46.8%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	45.7%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	45.7%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	42.2%	7.7%	45.7%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	40.5%	7.7%	45.7%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	40.5%	7.7%	45.7%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	40.5%	7.7%	45.7%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	40.5%	7.7%	45.7%	23.6%	15.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00	52.8%	11.6%	51.2%	16.2%	14.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	52.8%	11.6%	51.2%	16.2%	14.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	52.8%	11.6%	60.6%	16.2%	14.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	52.8%	11.6%	60.6%	16.2%	14.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	52.8%	11.6%	60.6%	16.2%	14.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:58+00:00	57.8%	11.6%	60.6%	16.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	57.8%	11.6%	60.6%	16.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	57.8%	11.6%	60.6%	16.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00	57.8%	11.6%	60.6%	16.2%	20.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00	57.8%	18.6%	62.6%	28.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00	57.8%	18.6%	62.6%	28.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	57.8%	18.6%	62.6%	28.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	57.8%	18.6%	62.6%	28.7%	20.0%
2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00	57.8%	18.5%	62.7%	28.7%	20.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	57.8%	18.5%	62.7%	28.7%	20.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	63%	71.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	71.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	68.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	21%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	67.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261022-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗