— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
92¢
aifs
85¢
icon
78¢
hres
57¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
46¢
eps
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F13¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F11¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261026-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape