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KCMH / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
92%
AIFS
85%
ICON
78%
HRES
57%
EPS
28%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u
VS
EPSNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · EPS −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 61.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 84.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 27.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 32.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00IFS HRES: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00IFS HRES: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 69.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 08:3710-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:44+00:0061.6%21.7%82.7%32.1%69.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0061.6%21.7%82.7%32.1%69.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0061.6%21.7%86.0%32.1%69.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0061.6%21.7%86.0%32.1%69.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0061.6%21.7%86.0%32.1%69.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0084.6%21.7%86.0%32.1%78.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0084.6%21.7%86.0%32.1%78.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0084.6%21.7%86.0%32.1%78.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:46+00:0084.6%21.7%86.0%32.1%78.0%
2026-10-20T10:53:45+00:0084.6%27.6%91.8%57.2%78.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0084.6%27.6%91.8%57.2%78.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0084.6%27.6%91.8%57.2%78.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0084.6%27.6%91.8%57.2%78.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 292%77.0°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single85%76.0°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON78%76.0°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%71.7°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend46%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble28%68.3°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Columbus high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗