— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
54¢
wn2
35¢
nbm
16¢
icon
16¢
eps
14¢
hres
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F9¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCMH-20261027-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape