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KCMH / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Columbus, OHHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST17%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
54%
WN2
35%
ICON
16%
EPS
14%
HRES
5%
Consensus
17%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 29.5¢Risks 29.50u
VS
HRESNO 70.5¢Risks 70.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +70.50u · HRES −70.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 54.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 4.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 16.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 16.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:46+00:0054.2%13.6%34.7%4.8%16.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:44+00:0054.2%13.6%34.7%4.8%16.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0054.2%13.6%34.7%4.8%16.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0054.2%13.6%34.7%4.8%16.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:19+00:0054.2%13.6%34.7%4.8%16.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single54%74.1°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 235%71.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend16%66.0°F7.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON16%63.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble14%69.1°F4.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%62.8°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCMH

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCMH-20261027-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Columbus runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗