daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sun Oct 18

Washington high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 62

longshot hit golden 1d out whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 57°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop went golden 0.8 days before settlement; traded as low as 8¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		99¢
aifs		97¢
rrfs		94¢
eps		88¢
nbm		87¢
icon		79¢
hres		76¢
ndfd		56¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-11T07:31:34+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:38:30+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape