KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

88%

79%

76%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.5¢Risks 87.50u

HRESNO 12.5¢Risks 12.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.50u · HRES −12.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:34+00:00	56.4%	92.3%	93.2%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:00+00:00	56.4%	92.3%	93.2%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	56.4%	92.3%	93.2%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:14+00:00	56.4%	92.3%	93.2%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:31+00:00	56.4%	92.3%	93.2%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T11:19:41+00:00	56.4%	77.6%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:20+00:00	56.4%	77.6%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00	56.4%	77.6%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:34+00:00	68.0%	77.6%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:10+00:00	67.9%	77.6%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T15:11:24+00:00	67.9%	77.0%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:16+00:00	67.9%	77.0%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:24+00:00	67.9%	77.0%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T17:27:54+00:00	67.9%	77.0%	76.1%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:06+00:00	67.9%	77.0%	74.8%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:16+00:00	67.9%	77.0%	74.8%	96.1%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:28+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	74.8%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:37+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	74.8%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:47+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	74.8%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:57+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	74.8%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:08+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	74.8%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:24+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:07+00:00	94.0%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:18+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T04:01:00+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	94.2%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	95.7%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	95.7%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T07:02:32+00:00	97.9%	77.0%	95.7%	89.9%	85.0%
2026-10-12T07:47:44+00:00	96.2%	77.0%	95.7%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:22+00:00	96.2%	77.0%	95.7%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	96.2%	77.0%	95.7%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00	96.2%	77.0%	95.7%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00	96.2%	77.0%	95.7%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:19+00:00	96.2%	77.0%	98.8%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	96.2%	86.5%	98.8%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:53+00:00	96.2%	86.5%	98.8%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	90.0%	86.5%	98.8%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	90.0%	86.1%	98.7%	96.3%	95.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:40+00:00	96.8%	69.3%	98.4%	62.3%	84.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	96.8%	69.3%	98.4%	62.3%	84.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	96.8%	69.3%	99.5%	62.3%	84.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	96.8%	69.3%	99.5%	62.3%	84.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:53+00:00	96.8%	69.3%	99.5%	62.3%	84.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	96.8%	69.3%	99.5%	62.3%	84.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	96.0%	69.3%	99.5%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	96.0%	69.3%	99.5%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	96.0%	69.3%	99.5%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	96.0%	69.3%	99.5%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	96.0%	69.3%	98.7%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	96.0%	69.3%	98.7%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	96.0%	69.3%	98.7%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	94.9%	69.3%	98.7%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	94.9%	69.3%	98.7%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	94.9%	69.3%	98.7%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	94.9%	69.3%	98.7%	75.6%	86.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	97.4%	67.0%	76.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	97.4%	67.0%	76.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	97.4%	67.0%	76.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	99.0%	67.0%	76.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	99.0%	67.0%	76.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	99.0%	67.0%	76.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:51+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	99.0%	67.0%	78.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	99.0%	67.0%	78.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	99.0%	67.0%	78.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	99.0%	67.0%	78.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	99.0%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	95.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	98.7%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	99.2%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	96.5%	65.1%	99.2%	77.5%	78.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	96.8%	65.1%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	96.8%	65.1%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	96.8%	65.1%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	96.8%	65.1%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	96.8%	65.1%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	96.8%	88.8%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	96.8%	88.8%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	96.8%	88.8%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	96.9%	88.8%	99.2%	75.8%	78.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	97.0%	88.4%	99.2%	75.8%	78.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	63.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0001
AIFS Single	97%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0009
IFS Ensemble	88%	60.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0135
National Blend	87%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
ICON	79%	59.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0454
IFS HRES	76%	59.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0586
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗