daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sun Oct 18

Washington high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 62

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 60°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 3¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		83¢
icon		72¢
aifs		67¢
nbm		62¢
ndfd		55¢
eps		33¢
hres		32¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:38:31+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape