KDCA / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

72%

67%

33%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

HRESNO 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.85u · HRES −42.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:15+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	78.9%	68.6%	91.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	78.9%	68.4%	91.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	68.4%	91.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	68.4%	91.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	68.4%	91.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	68.4%	91.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	68.4%	91.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	68.4%	91.5%
2026-10-13T21:42:57+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	68.4%	91.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	84.1%	57.4%	91.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	71.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:09+00:00	56.4%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	91.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	57.8%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	57.8%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	57.8%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	57.8%	62.2%	85.7%	57.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:08+00:00	57.8%	62.2%	85.7%	31.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00	57.8%	32.7%	82.7%	31.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	57.8%	32.7%	82.7%	31.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	57.8%	32.7%	82.7%	31.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	66.8%	32.7%	82.7%	31.6%	71.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	66.8%	32.9%	82.7%	31.6%	71.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0299
ICON	72%	62.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0790
AIFS Single	67%	61.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1102
National Blend	62%	61.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1429
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	33%	57.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4502
IFS HRES	32%	57.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.4679

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗