daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Mon Oct 19

Washington runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +5028 · decimal 51.28

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		15¢
wn2		10¢
hres		7¢
aifs		6¢
ndfd		2¢
eps		1¢
nbm		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F2¢

62–63°F10¢

64–65°F24¢

66–67°F31¢

68–69°F22¢

70–71°F8¢

72–73°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape