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KDCA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00IFS HRES: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00ICON: 15.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:0010-12 22:5910-13 05:0110-13 10:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T22:59:03+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:22+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:005.1%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:44+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T04:15:16+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:49+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:00+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:15+00:008.8%1.1%9.9%9.8%9.0%
2026-10-13T08:02:38+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:005.7%1.1%9.9%6.8%15.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 22:59 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗