— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
89¢
aifs
73¢
icon
69¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
44¢
eps
42¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDCA-20261025-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape