KDCA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

73%

69%

44%

42%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.2¢Risks 65.25u

EPSNO 34.8¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.75u · EPS −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	77.6%	19.5%	78.0%	33.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	77.6%	19.5%	78.0%	33.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	77.6%	19.5%	78.0%	33.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	77.6%	19.5%	84.8%	33.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	77.6%	19.5%	84.8%	33.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	77.6%	19.5%	84.8%	33.5%	55.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	78.2%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:13+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	84.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	85.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	85.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	76.5%	19.5%	85.8%	48.8%	63.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	72.8%	19.5%	85.8%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	72.8%	19.5%	85.8%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	72.8%	19.5%	85.8%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	72.8%	19.5%	85.8%	48.8%	68.9%
2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00	72.8%	41.6%	88.8%	44.5%	68.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	72.8%	41.6%	88.8%	44.5%	68.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	72.8%	41.6%	88.8%	44.5%	68.9%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	72.8%	41.6%	88.8%	44.5%	68.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	72.9%	41.6%	88.9%	44.5%	68.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	70.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	68.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	69%	68.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	64.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	64.8°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 15:13 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗