— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
87¢
icon
79¢
aifs
63¢
nbm
57¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
43¢
eps
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,316 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.851 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-20T04:51:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape