KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

79%

63%

43%

21%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 54.1¢Risks 54.15u

EPSNO 45.9¢Risks 45.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +45.85u · EPS −45.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:51:13+00:00	74.6%	11.4%	84.6%	50.0%	63.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	74.6%	11.4%	81.1%	50.0%	63.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	74.6%	11.4%	81.1%	50.0%	63.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	74.6%	11.4%	81.1%	50.0%	63.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	69.1%	11.4%	81.1%	50.0%	79.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	69.1%	11.4%	81.1%	50.0%	79.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	69.1%	11.4%	81.1%	50.0%	79.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	69.1%	11.4%	81.1%	50.0%	79.2%
2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00	69.1%	18.8%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	69.1%	18.8%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	69.1%	18.8%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	69.1%	18.8%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	69.2%	18.8%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00	69.2%	18.8%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00	69.2%	21.1%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00	69.2%	21.1%	84.8%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T17:03:10+00:00	63.1%	21.1%	87.2%	43.4%	79.2%
2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00	63.1%	21.1%	87.2%	43.4%	79.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	87%	75.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	79%	76.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	72.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	69.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	67.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗