daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Mon Oct 26

Washington runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

14¢

american +608 · decimal 7.08

on the tape

76°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 76°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		55¢
wn2		48¢
aifs		34¢
ndfd		22¢
hres		18¢
nbm		9¢
eps		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F2¢

64–65°F5¢

66–67°F10¢

68–69°F16¢

70–71°F19¢

72–73°F19¢

74–75°F14¢

76–77°F8¢

78–79°F4¢

80–81°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape