KDCA / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

48%

34%

18%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.9¢Risks 27.85u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +72.15u · EPS −72.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:37+00:00	46.5%	0.4%	46.4%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	46.5%	0.4%	46.4%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	46.5%	0.4%	46.4%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	46.5%	0.4%	46.4%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:56+00:00	46.5%	0.4%	46.4%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:38+00:00	46.5%	0.3%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	46.5%	0.3%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	46.5%	0.3%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	41.1%	0.3%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	41.0%	0.3%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:15+00:00	41.0%	0.4%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	41.0%	0.4%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	41.0%	0.4%	41.5%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	41.0%	0.4%	54.7%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	41.0%	0.4%	54.7%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	41.0%	0.4%	54.7%	16.4%	6.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	54.7%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	54.7%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	54.7%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	54.7%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	54.7%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	43.8%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:14+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	51.6%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	46.1%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	46.1%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	41.7%	0.4%	46.1%	21.9%	44.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	46.1%	21.9%	54.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	46.1%	21.9%	54.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	46.1%	21.9%	54.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	33.5%	0.4%	46.1%	21.9%	54.5%
2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00	33.5%	1.2%	48.3%	17.7%	54.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	33.5%	1.2%	48.3%	17.7%	54.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	33.5%	1.2%	48.3%	17.7%	54.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	33.5%	1.2%	48.3%	17.7%	54.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	33.5%	1.2%	48.3%	17.7%	54.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	55%	76.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	75.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	73.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	18%	69.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	67.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗