daily prop · Washington, DC · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Tue Oct 27

Washington runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Tue Oct 27

11¢

american +807 · decimal 9.07

on the tape

76°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 76°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		59¢
wn2		28¢
icon		24¢
hres		19¢
nbm		8¢
eps		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F3¢

64–65°F6¢

66–67°F12¢

68–69°F17¢

70–71°F20¢

72–73°F18¢

74–75°F12¢

76–77°F7¢

78–79°F3¢

80–81°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,437 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.597 vs climatology 8.737.

Receipts

prop id WP-KDCA-20261027-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape