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KDCA / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
59%
WN2
28%
ICON
24%
HRES
19%
EPS
2%
Consensus
11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 30.7¢Risks 30.70u
VS
EPSNO 69.3¢Risks 69.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.30u · EPS −69.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00AIFS Single: 56.2% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T17:03:11+00:00AIFS Single: 59.0% · 2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T17:03:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T17:03:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 27.8% · 2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T17:03:11+00:00IFS HRES: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00ICON: 24.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:00ICON: 24.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00ICON: 24.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 24.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 24.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00ICON: 24.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00ICON: 24.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00ICON: 24.5% · 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00ICON: 24.5% · 2026-10-20T17:03:11+00:00ICON: 24.5% · 2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 14:4610-20 17:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:01+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.5%
2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.5%
2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:0056.2%2.4%34.0%19.2%24.5%
2026-10-20T17:03:11+00:0059.0%2.4%27.8%19.2%24.5%
2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:0059.0%2.4%27.8%19.2%24.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single59%76.8°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%72.5°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON24%68.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES19%69.9°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend8%69.0°F4.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%69.0°F3.3°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261027-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗