— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
83¢
aifs
71¢
nbm
67¢
wn2
63¢
hres
62¢
ndfd
55¢
icon
39¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F7¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F17¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,104 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.883.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape