KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

71%

63%

62%

39%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +38.90u · ICON −38.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	64.9%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	64.9%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	64.9%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.3%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	64.9%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	64.9%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	66.8%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	66.8%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	66.8%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	66.8%	65.3%	63.3%	66.1%	45.0%
2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00	66.8%	65.3%	63.3%	50.0%	45.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00	66.8%	89.0%	58.5%	50.0%	45.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	66.8%	89.0%	58.5%	50.0%	45.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	66.8%	89.0%	58.5%	50.0%	45.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	66.8%	89.0%	58.5%	50.0%	45.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	66.8%	89.0%	58.5%	50.0%	45.9%
2026-10-15T04:48:03+00:00	65.2%	85.4%	61.6%	53.2%	42.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	65.2%	85.4%	62.6%	53.2%	42.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	65.2%	85.4%	62.6%	53.2%	42.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	65.2%	85.4%	62.6%	53.2%	42.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:17+00:00	72.0%	85.4%	62.6%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	72.0%	85.4%	62.6%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	72.0%	85.4%	62.6%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	72.0%	85.4%	62.6%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	72.0%	85.4%	62.6%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:31+00:00	72.0%	85.4%	62.8%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	72.0%	90.5%	62.8%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	72.0%	90.5%	62.8%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	71.2%	90.5%	62.8%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	71.3%	90.4%	62.8%	62.3%	39.1%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	71.3%	83.1%	62.8%	62.3%	39.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	74.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	71%	72.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	72.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	71.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	71.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	71.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
ICON	39%	69.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗