— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
hres
48¢
icon
33¢
eps
24¢
nbm
16¢
wn2
9¢
aifs
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F15¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T15:25:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape