KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

33%

24%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

AIFSNO 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +73.85u · AIFS −73.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:09+00:00	5.8%	16.1%	10.3%	23.4%	45.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	5.8%	16.1%	10.3%	23.4%	45.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	5.8%	16.1%	10.3%	23.4%	45.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	5.8%	16.1%	14.2%	23.4%	45.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	5.8%	16.1%	14.2%	23.4%	45.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	5.8%	16.1%	14.2%	23.4%	45.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	14.2%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	14.2%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	14.2%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	14.2%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	14.2%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	10.7%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	10.7%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	6.0%	16.1%	10.7%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	4.9%	16.1%	10.7%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	4.9%	16.1%	10.7%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	4.9%	16.1%	10.7%	18.9%	37.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	3.0%	23.6%	5.4%	39.0%	39.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	3.0%	23.6%	5.4%	39.0%	39.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	3.0%	23.6%	8.6%	39.0%	39.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	3.0%	23.6%	8.6%	39.0%	39.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	3.0%	23.6%	8.6%	39.0%	39.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	3.0%	23.6%	8.6%	39.0%	39.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	2.8%	23.6%	8.6%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	2.8%	23.6%	8.6%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	2.8%	23.6%	8.6%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	2.8%	23.6%	8.6%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	2.8%	23.6%	9.0%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	2.8%	23.6%	9.0%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	2.8%	23.6%	9.0%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	3.9%	23.6%	9.0%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	3.9%	23.6%	9.0%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	3.9%	23.6%	9.0%	48.4%	33.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	3.9%	23.6%	9.0%	48.4%	33.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	79.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	33%	77.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	76.3°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	74.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	71.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 80°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗