— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
88¢
hres
62¢
nbm
52¢
aifs
38¢
icon
35¢
wn2
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F5¢
58–59°F9¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F14¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE61 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape