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KDEN / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
88%
HRES
62%
AIFS
38%
ICON
35%
WN2
28%
Consensus
49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 58.1¢Risks 58.10u
VS
WN2NO 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +41.90u · WN2 −41.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00IFS HRES: 62.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00ICON: 34.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 07:4410-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:0037.7%87.7%28.5%62.2%34.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:0037.7%87.7%28.5%62.2%34.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:0037.7%87.7%28.5%62.2%34.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:0037.7%87.7%28.5%62.2%34.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0037.7%87.7%28.5%62.2%34.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble88%70.6°F8.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES62%62.5°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend52%61.0°F11.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single38%58.7°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON35%56.6°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%57.4°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261024-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 61°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗